国泰海通 · 晨报0825｜宏观、策略、海外策略、传媒

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has indicated a shift towards a dovish stance, suggesting a potential preventive interest rate cut in September 2025, with expectations of two cuts within the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3][5]. - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted three key points: a reassessment of the labor market indicating a risk of job deterioration, the ongoing impact of tariffs on inflation without triggering a wage-price spiral, and a greater risk of employment decline compared to inflation rise [3][5]. - The revised monetary policy framework reflects minor adjustments aimed at addressing current employment and inflation dynamics, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [4]. Group 2: Technology Sector Trends - The technology sector is experiencing a surge, with AI emerging as a dominant theme, leading to significant capital inflows and market activity, particularly in domestic GPU and server markets [9][10]. - The launch of DeepSeek's V3.1 model demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, enhancing efficiency and performance in various applications, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related companies [21][24]. - The robotics industry is transitioning from exploration to commercial scale, with significant advancements expected by 2025, positioning it as a key area for investment [11]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - Despite underperforming compared to A-shares, the Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from three positive factors: potential technological breakthroughs in the tech sector, a favorable shift in foreign capital flows due to anticipated interest rate cuts, and continued inflows from southbound capital [16][18][19]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains attractive, with significant upside potential compared to historical peaks, suggesting a recovery in the second half of the year [18][19]. Group 4: Consumer and Equipment Investment - The government is enhancing fiscal and financial support to stimulate consumption, with specific focus on sectors like new consumption and high-end equipment, which are expected to see substantial investment [12][14]. - The release of special bonds to support equipment upgrades is projected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in total investment across various sectors, indicating strong government backing for industrial growth [12].