国泰海通｜有色：“供改”落地，冶炼资产或加速重估

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new management measures for rare earth mining and separation is expected to significantly constrain supply, leading to a revaluation of smelting assets and further catalyzing the rare earth sector's market performance [1][2]. Supply Constraints - The new management measures allow only designated enterprises by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the Ministry of Natural Resources to conduct smelting and separation, incorporating imported ore into regulation. This change may lead to the exit of some small and medium-sized smelting enterprises, resulting in substantial supply constraints [2]. - The processing fees for heavy rare earth minerals have surged from 0.15 million yuan per ton to 1.35 million yuan per ton since early August 2025. The theoretical net profit for smelting and separation is estimated at around 14,000 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 20,000 yuan per ton compared to the beginning of the year [2]. Price Dynamics - The demand for rare earths is expected to rise as the peak season for electric vehicles approaches, with strong replenishment needs from domestic and international companies driving recent price increases. The new management measures are anticipated to catalyze both supply and sentiment, maintaining strong upward momentum for rare earth prices [3].