国泰海通｜宏观：前瞻“十五五”：预期目标与产业机遇

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on expanding consumption, new productive forces, common prosperity, deepening reforms, and green transformation, with an emphasis on emerging future industries, services, marine and green low-carbon sectors, and potential beneficiaries such as private tech firms and state-owned enterprises in emerging industries [1] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Innovation - The GDP annual growth target for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, with a bottom line of over 4.5% to ensure the successful completion of the 2035 long-term goals [2] - The innovation-driven target for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be significantly higher than that of the "13th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the national innovation system and the vitality of various innovation entities and talent support [2] Common Prosperity and Reforms - The plan aims to enhance the well-being of citizens by adding new targets related to housing, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare, with a focus on investing more resources in human capital and public services [3] - Over 300 reform measures from the 20th National Congress are expected to be key focuses of the "14th Five-Year Plan," targeting the reduction of logistics costs and promoting a unified national market [4] Green Transformation - The green low-carbon goals may include a primary focus on controlling carbon emission intensity, with supplementary total control measures, aiming to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP [5] - The plan aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030, with clear frameworks for the development goals of energy-saving and environmental protection industries, new energy, and low-carbon transportation [9] Industry Opportunities - Emerging and future industries such as electronic information manufacturing, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces are expected to see rapid market penetration and technological breakthroughs [6] - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption sectors like retail, healthcare, elderly care, telecommunications, and internet services, as well as in productive service industries like science and technology, finance, and information services [7] - The marine industry, particularly in marine tourism, transportation, shipbuilding, electricity, and biomedicine, is projected to accelerate due to favorable policies and market conditions [8]