【周观点】8月第2周乘用车环比+14.4%，继续看好汽车板块

Investment Highlights - In the second week of August, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 429,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 10.5% [2][50] - The performance of segmented automotive sectors this week ranked as follows: SW commercial trucks (+6.2%) > SW passenger cars (+4.9%) > SW auto parts (+4.8%) > SW automobiles (+4.7%) > SW passenger buses (+2.74%) > SW motorcycles and others (+2.71%) [2][12] - The top five stocks covered this week with significant gains include NIO-SW, Songyuan Safety, Top Group, Xpeng Motors-W, and Fuyao Glass [2][12] Team Research Outcomes - The team released mid-term reports for Huayang Group, Songyuan Safety, Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, Jifeng Co., and BAIC Blue Valley, along with a monthly report for buses in August [3] Core Industry Changes 1. Xpeng Motors reported Q2 revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. The gross margin was 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 14.3% (compared to 10.5% in Q1), marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [4] 2. The Li Auto i8 is set to be delivered on August 20, with VLA also being launched [4] 3. The launch of the Aito M8 pure electric version is scheduled for August 25 [4] 4. Dongfeng's subsidiary, Lantu Motors, will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through an introduction, while Dongfeng Group will simultaneously complete its privatization [4] 5. The Shanghai Stock Exchange's M&A Review Committee is scheduled to review the acquisition of Zhaolubo on August 25, 2025 [4] Current Market Focus - The automotive sector has shown positive performance in both A-shares and H-shares, with various sub-sectors experiencing different degrees of rebound, particularly commercial trucks [5][13] - Key changes this week include the compulsory insurance data meeting expectations, Dongfeng's H-share privatization, Xpeng's Q2 performance aligning with expectations, NIO's new ES8 pricing exceeding expectations, Changan's Q2 performance slightly below expectations, and strong orders for Great Wall's Tank/Haval new vehicles [5][13] Automotive Sector Configuration - The automotive industry is perceived to be at a new crossroads, with the electric vehicle (EV) dividend nearing its end and the smart vehicle sector entering a "dark before dawn" phase. Historical references to the automotive industry's transitions in 2011 and 2018 suggest opportunities for structural market positioning [6][13] - Recommendations for the second half of 2025 include increasing the allocation weight for "dividend style" investments, focusing on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck A-H/Weichai Power), two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power/Loncin General), and auto parts (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Xinquan Co., Jifeng Co.) [6][13] - For AI and smart vehicles, preferred stocks include Hong Kong-listed companies (Xpeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) over A-shares (Seres, SAIC Motor, BYD), with a focus on parts suppliers like Horizon Robotics-W, China Automotive Research, Desay SV, Bertley, and Heisima Intelligent [6][13] - In the AI robotics sector, preferred parts suppliers include Top Group, Precision Forging Technology, Fuda Co., Xusheng Group, and Aikodi [6][13]