美欧制造业PMI超预期改善——海外周报第104期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].