九月或降息，但不是连续降息——2025年杰克逊霍尔年会点评

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve in August, where central bank leaders announce adjustments or signals regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][10][11] - In recent years, Powell has made significant announcements at this event, including the average inflation targeting in 2020, reaffirming the temporary inflation view in 2021, and discussing the transition to a rate-cutting cycle in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - Powell's speech this year emphasized the increasing risks of employment downturn, indicating that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "strange balance" due to significant supply-demand slowdown, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment [3][13] - The likelihood of tariff price shocks evolving into sustained inflation seems unlikely, as current impacts are expected to be temporary and not lead to a "wage-price spiral" due to a less tight labor market [3][14] - Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 72% to 81.3% following his speech, indicating a shift in the Fed's assessment of inflation and employment risks [4][15][16] Group 3 - The adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment, moving from an average inflation targeting to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions [5][21][24] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement indicates a recognition that the neutral interest rate may now be higher than in the 2010s, suggesting a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [5][21] - The Fed's focus will now be on achieving a 2% inflation target in the medium term while retaining flexibility to respond to short-term economic developments [5][24]