中金缪延亮：美元霸权的“使用”与“动摇”

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the U.S. dollar's hegemony is not diminishing but is being undermined by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance and the politicization of its "safe asset" status, which erodes global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [2][27][28]. Group 1: Foundation of Dollar Hegemony - The foundation of dollar hegemony lies in the consensus around U.S. Treasuries as a "safe asset," characterized by long-term value retention, liquidity, and negative beta properties during crises [3][6]. - The concept of "exorbitant privilege" refers to the unique advantages the U.S. enjoys as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, allowing it to issue debt to cover trade deficits without significant repercussions [4][11]. Group 2: Manifestations of Dollar Hegemony - Dollar hegemony manifests in three key privileges: low-interest financing, the ability to roll over debt without repayment, and enhanced fiscal space during crises [9][10][13]. - Low-interest financing results from the high liquidity and quality of U.S. Treasuries, leading to a "convenience yield" that lowers the cost of borrowing for the U.S. [10][11]. - The U.S. can sustain high levels of debt without immediate repayment obligations, effectively engaging in a "Ponzi-like" financing model, as long as interest rates remain below economic growth rates [13][14]. Group 3: Current Status of Dollar Hegemony - The current status of dollar hegemony is challenged by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance, which has pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio above 120%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [27][28]. - The politicization of U.S. Treasuries, exemplified by the freezing of foreign reserves, has created uncertainty about their status as a "safe asset," potentially leading to a loss of confidence among global investors [28][29]. - The absence of "ultimate buyers" for U.S. debt, as countries diversify their reserves away from Treasuries, poses a significant risk to the maintenance of the dollar's hegemonic status [30].