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中金:恒生与港股通调整影响分析(2025-8)
中金点睛·2025-08-25 00:27

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the Hang Seng Index and its implications for investors, highlighting the inclusion and exclusion of specific stocks and the expected capital flows resulting from these changes [2][3][5]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index has included China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with respective weights of 1.44%, 0.51%, and 0.22%, increasing the total number of constituent stocks to 88 [3]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has added Pop Mart with a weight of 2.10%, while Jitu Express has been removed, maintaining the total number of constituent stocks at 50 [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw no changes, keeping its 30 constituent stocks unchanged [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow Implications - For the Hang Seng Index, the expected capital inflows from the newly included stocks are approximately $160 million for China Telecom, $68.74 million for JD Logistics, and $45 million for Pop Mart, with respective inflow durations of 4.4 days, 3.5 days, and 1.0 day [3]. - The potential capital outflow from China Bank due to weight changes could reach $12 million, with an outflow duration of about 0.6 days [3]. - In the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Pop Mart is expected to bring in $15 million, with an inflow duration of approximately 0.3 days, while Jitu Express may see an outflow of about $4.993 million over 1.2 days [4]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - The article anticipates 20 new stocks to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 stocks likely to be removed, aligning closely with previous predictions [5]. - The potential new additions include companies such as China Foods, Caocao Travel, and Nanshan Aluminum International, while removals include companies like Xirui and Youkang Vision [5]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The adjustments will be implemented on September 5 and will officially take effect on September 8, with passive funds expected to rebalance their portfolios on the implementation date, leading to significant trading volume increases [7].