牛市里，更要追求“模糊的正确”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing "fuzzy correctness" over "precise errors" in investment strategies, particularly in the context of a bull market, where maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for success [4][19][21]. Group 1: Short-term Market Randomness - Stock price fluctuations in the short term are primarily driven by investor emotions, capital flows, and information noise, making them highly random and unpredictable [6][16]. - Investors often fall into the trap of seeking precise predictions through technical indicators, which can lead to overconfidence and frequent trading, ultimately resulting in poor performance [7][8][17]. Group 2: Fuzzy Correctness - "Fuzzy correctness" is defined as a rational investment strategy based on common sense and probability, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term precision [10][11]. - Investors should prioritize fundamental analysis and avoid chasing speculative stocks, instead concentrating on companies with strong long-term prospects and competitive advantages [10][12]. Group 3: Precision Errors - The pursuit of precision in investment often leads to overfitting models to historical data, which can fail in changing market conditions [15][16]. - Frequent trading and attempts to time the market can amplify risks and lead to significant losses, as evidenced by the poor performance of high-frequency trading accounts in the A-share market [8][17][20]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Embracing "fuzzy correctness" aligns with a long-term investment philosophy, where patience and discipline are more valuable than short-term gains [19][20]. - The article illustrates that even if investors make minor errors in stock selection or timing, the long-term growth of fundamentally sound companies can compensate for these mistakes [19][20]. Group 5: Practical Investment Principles - Investors are encouraged to focus on fundamental analysis, avoid the obsession with precision, diversify their holdings, and adopt a long-term holding strategy to maximize returns [21][22].