【招银研究】美联储超预期转鸽，流动性驱动A股牛市——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.08.25-08.29）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal cooling of the U.S. job market amidst steady economic expansion, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy continues to expand steadily, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 2.3% [2]. - Consumer momentum remains stable at 2.2%, while investment momentum has slightly declined to 0.7%, influenced by rising long-term interest rates [2]. - Initial jobless claims have risen to 235,000, signaling a potential cooling in the job market, with the unemployment rate possibly increasing to around 4.3% [2]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The U.S. fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a deficit of $119.5 billion reported, significantly above seasonal levels [2]. - Following a temporary balance in Q2, the fiscal deficit surged to $290 billion in July, indicating a continued trend of fiscal support driving economic momentum [2]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting suggests a high probability of interest rate cuts in September [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have declined, while gold prices have rebounded [3]. - U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn due to rising inflation concerns and mixed retail earnings reports, with a view that stock valuations are high and upward potential is limited [3]. - The short-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields is expected to remain low, but long-term rates may stay elevated due to fiscal and re-inflation pressures [3]. Group 4: Chinese Economic Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volume and prices, with new home sales in 30 major cities down by 15.1% [5]. - On the fiscal side, China's public budget revenue has turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, driven by improved tax revenues [6]. - The People's Bank of China is actively providing liquidity support, with a recent MLF operation of 600 billion yuan aimed at bolstering credit support for small and micro enterprises [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that the current market environment is conducive to a bull market driven by liquidity, similar to historical "water buffalo" markets [11]. - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, with a focus on dividend stocks as a stable base, while technology and small-cap stocks are seen as aggressive allocations [12]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with a long-term bullish outlook, particularly for dividend assets and technology stocks [12].