口子窖在安徽老家都卖不动了？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the performance of Kuozi Jiao, a leading brand in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly in the context of a deep adjustment period for the liquor sector, which has led to challenges in achieving its strategic goals and maintaining market position [4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 2.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 715 million, down 24.63% [5][6]. - This marks the first time in three years that Kuozi Jiao has experienced a simultaneous decline in both revenue and net profit, with declines exceeding 20% [5][6]. Quarterly Analysis - The second quarter of 2025 was particularly challenging, with revenue dropping to 721 million, a staggering 48.48% year-on-year decline, and net profit falling to 105 million, a 70.91% decrease, marking the largest quarterly drop since the company went public [6][7]. Product Performance - High-end product sales, which account for 96% of total revenue, saw a 19.8% decline, indicating a failure of Kuozi Jiao's "Jian Series" strategy to break through market barriers [7][9]. - Mid-range and low-end products also experienced declines, with mid-range sales down 10.82% and low-end sales down 2.59%, reflecting a broader contraction in consumer spending across all price segments [7][9]. Channel Performance - Revenue from wholesale and agency channels, which contribute 95% of total revenue, fell by 21.26%, significantly outpacing the overall revenue decline [8][9]. - Despite a 44.57% increase in direct sales, this only amounted to 133 million, which is minimal compared to the total revenue of 25.31 billion [8][9]. Market Challenges - Kuozi Jiao's home market in Anhui saw a revenue decline of 19.31%, indicating difficulties in expanding its core market [8][9]. - The company faces challenges in expanding outside its home province, with a reliance on a large distributor model that lacks refined operations, resulting in low product penetration [9][11]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 7.2% year-on-year decline in production among large enterprises and an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, which has increased by 10% [11][12]. - Kuozi Jiao's inventory as of June was valued at 6.159 billion, representing 45.9% of total assets, with a substantial portion of base liquor inventory that could support sales for nearly nine years based on production capacity [11][12].