国泰海通｜宏观：鲍威尔转鸽，9月或开启降息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dovish stance taken by Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, indicating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although the pace of cuts is expected to be slow due to inflation concerns [1][4]. Global Asset Performance - Major stock markets showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.3%, and the S&P 500 by 0.3%. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.7% [2]. - Commodity prices exhibited mixed results, with IPE Brent crude oil futures increasing by 2.5%, the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index rising by 2.1%, and London gold increasing by 1.1%. The South China Commodity Index, however, decreased by 0.4% [2]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.72 [2]. U.S. Economic Overview - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. showed signs of recovery, with the Markit Manufacturing PMI for August exceeding market expectations. The services PMI slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level [3]. - Real estate sales and new construction have seen a rebound, with July's existing home sales volume increasing despite a decrease in prices. New housing starts showed a significant year-on-year increase, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [3]. - As of August 22, the 5-year inflation expectations in the U.S. rose to 2.48%, an increase of 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year inflation expectations rose to 2.41%, up by 3 basis points [3]. European Economic Overview - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI continued to rise in August, while the consumer confidence index for the 27 Eurozone countries saw a slight decline [4]. - Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest a possible interest rate cut in September, alongside a revision of the long-term monetary policy strategy, moving away from a compensatory approach to a flexible inflation target [4].