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国泰海通|策略:鸽声渐起:超配权益待新高,债券迎配置时机
国泰海通证券研究·2025-08-25 14:44

Group 1 - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance and adjustments are trending towards a more accommodative stance, leading to significant market corrections in expectations regarding monetary policy and inflation [1] - The company maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares due to factors such as capital market reforms, stable market liquidity, improved social attitudes and risk preferences, and optimized micro trading structures [1][2] - The outlook for U.S. equities is relatively optimistic, supported by economic resilience, corporate profitability, and marginal improvements in liquidity expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The article suggests that the tactical allocation view for U.S. Treasuries has been upgraded to benchmark due to the accommodative adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, which is expected to benefit Treasury performance [2] - The company has also upgraded its tactical allocation view for government bonds to benchmark, anticipating that the central bank's monetary policy may take action to ensure stable liquidity in the interbank market [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on gold, as the market's expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy are likely to lower the holding costs of gold, thus supporting its price performance [3]