中金：不宜过度解读鲍威尔的“鸽”

Core Viewpoint - The market interpreted Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as a dovish signal for monetary easing, but the company believes it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of rate cuts, rather clarifying the Fed's "reaction function" in response to employment and inflation risks [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Reaction Function - Powell indicated that the Fed would lean towards rate cuts when employment risks outweigh inflation risks. However, if inflation risks surpass employment concerns, the Fed could halt rate cuts using the same "reaction function" [5][9]. - The current environment of higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies creates a scenario where both employment and inflation risks coexist, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4][5]. Economic Context and Risks - Powell acknowledged that structural shocks are impacting the economy, with higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies slowing labor growth. He emphasized that while monetary policy can stabilize cyclical fluctuations, it is largely ineffective against structural shocks [8][9]. - The Fed's revised monetary policy framework for 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach to employment and inflation, moving away from the previous average inflation targeting that allowed for higher inflation in pursuit of more jobs [5][9]. Comparison with Previous Guidance - Compared to his 2024 speech, Powell's current guidance reflects a lack of confidence in the ability to achieve the 2% inflation target, indicating a more cautious stance on monetary easing [6][7]. - The current economic situation is described as challenging, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks to the downside, contrasting with the more confident tone of the previous year [7][9]. Market Implications - The company suggests that the market should not overly interpret Powell's dovish comments as a clear signal for a series of rate cuts. Even if a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, it does not imply the beginning of a broader easing cycle [9]. - The potential for "stagflation" could lead to increased market volatility as the Fed navigates conflicting employment and inflation targets [9].