美联储9月降息稳了？还有两份重磅数据可能颠覆预期

Core Viewpoint - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting signals a potential interest rate cut next month, but upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the actual decision [1][3][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell emphasized the increasing risks from high borrowing costs that could harm the labor market, indicating a possible rate cut as early as September [4] - The futures market currently prices in a 75%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3][5] - Despite Powell's strong signals, several Federal Reserve officials caution that the upcoming employment and CPI data will be key in deciding the September rate cut [3][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury and stock markets surged, with the yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury bonds widening to its highest level in nearly four years [3][7] - Investors are favoring short-term U.S. Treasuries in anticipation of a return to accommodative monetary policy, as they are seen to have more certain upside potential compared to long-term bonds [8] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are limiting the gains in long-term bonds, as the market remains cautious about the Fed's ability to manage inflation risks [6][8] - The current inflation rate is closer to 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, raising doubts about the timing of any rate cuts [3][5]