张瑜：居民存款的“存”与“搬”——五大指标助观察

Core Viewpoints - The transition of household deposits from "excessive defensive deposits" to "normal deposits" is a two-step process, currently in the first step [4] - The shift from "excessive defensive deposits" to "normal deposits" requires tracking household cash flow statements, with the ratio of new deposits to income increasing from approximately 14% (2016-2019) to 22% (2022-2024) [4][8] - Five macro-level high-frequency alternative indicators are proposed to track the progress of household deposit migration [4][10] Group 1: Deposit Scale - The ratio of household deposits to GDP in China has increased significantly, reaching 112% by the end of 2024, with an estimated excess deposit of around 40 trillion yuan [21][23] - Historical data shows that the average ratio of household deposits to GDP in China from 2010 to 2019 was 78%, with a peak of 82% [21][23] - The current household deposit level is approximately 160 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the expected range of 110 to 120 trillion yuan based on pre-pandemic trends [6][7] Group 2: Deposit Flow - The current macroeconomic challenge is the transition of excessive deposits to normal deposits, which can be accurately tracked through household cash flow statements [34] - The ratio of new deposits to disposable income has increased from 14% (2016-2019) to 22% (2022-2024), indicating a shift towards normal deposits [35][36] - The concept of "excess savings" is rejected; instead, it is defined as "defensive deposits" due to reduced investment spending in a declining asset price environment [9][36] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking Indicators - The first indicator, the difference between current and fixed-term deposits, shows that a higher current deposit ratio indicates a weaker defensive saving intention [10][42] - The second indicator, the ratio of new household currency to new M2, indicates that a lower ratio suggests funds are flowing more towards enterprises and non-bank sectors, improving monetary turnover efficiency [11][12][44] - The third indicator, the difference between enterprise and household deposit growth rates, serves as a leading indicator for economic activity, with current levels indicating a recovery from the most pessimistic economic phase [13][48] Group 4: Defensive Deposits and Financial Markets - The fourth indicator measures the scale of non-bank institutions' financing from the real economy, which has reached historical highs, indicating a significant flow of household deposits into non-bank institutions [14][51] - The fifth indicator compares household deposits to the market capitalization of stocks, with a current ratio of approximately 1.71, suggesting that household purchasing power is still sufficient to support stock market transactions [16][56]