“十五五”规划的两条主线（国金宏观张馨月）

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve high-quality economic development through the expansion of domestic demand and the overall leap in new productive forces, which will mutually drive each other [2][20]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a key quantitative goal of doubling GDP per capita from 2020 levels by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth rate of over 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [4][5]. - The external environment will face increased geopolitical risks and uncertainties, necessitating a focus on domestic development to maintain strategic initiative [7][9]. - Internally, insufficient effective demand, particularly in consumer spending, is identified as a major contradiction, with China's consumption rate significantly lower than that of developed countries [9][12]. Group 2: Internal Changes - The aging population will accelerate during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with the proportion of people aged 65 and over expected to reach 18.3% by 2030, posing challenges to economic growth and consumer demand [12]. - Urbanization will transition from rapid growth to stable development, with the urbanization rate projected to reach 70% by 2024, indicating significant potential for domestic demand expansion [15][16]. - The shift towards new industrialization is essential, with a focus on technological innovation to upgrade industrial structures and avoid falling into the "middle-income trap" [19][41]. Group 3: Domestic Demand as a Mainline - The plan emphasizes the need to enhance income distribution systems to increase residents' disposable income, particularly for middle and low-income groups, which are crucial for expanding domestic demand [23][27]. - Strengthening social security for middle and low-income groups is a priority, with a focus on improving public services and reducing household consumption burdens [29]. - Optimizing the consumption supply structure is vital, with a significant shift towards service consumption expected as the economy matures [30][31]. Group 4: Technological Advancement - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize the development of new productive forces, focusing on localized industrial development and breaking through key technological bottlenecks [42][43]. - Emphasis will be placed on increasing investment in basic research and development, aiming to raise the proportion of basic R&D spending significantly [45]. - The plan will also support the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing practices [49][50]. Group 5: Consumption Mechanisms - Establishing a long-term mechanism to promote consumption is critical, with potential indicators for consumption rates being introduced to guide economic policy [33][36]. - The plan will enhance statistical methods related to consumption to better reflect its impact on economic growth [36]. - Local government assessment mechanisms will be adjusted to prioritize consumption promotion, moving away from production-oriented evaluations [36][37].