展望未来：炼油与石化行业战略转型已成必选项

Core Viewpoint - The refining and chemical industries are facing significant challenges due to slowing demand growth, the rise of electric vehicles, and ongoing capacity expansion, leading to a projected decline in refining margins by about 5% to 30% by 2030 [3][4]. Recent Trends and Market Outlook - The refining market is expected to see a notable decline in profit margins, primarily driven by demand slowdown and capacity expansion disrupting supply-demand balance [3]. - The chemical market is also under pressure, with rapid capacity expansion, especially in China, outpacing demand growth, leading to overcapacity and compressed profit margins [3]. Challenges for Asian Refining and Chemical Industries - The evolving market dynamics are reshaping the competitive landscape, necessitating adaptation from companies [4]. - Uncertainties in carbon neutrality policies complicate long-term planning for refining and chemical companies, potentially leading to the exit of outdated capacities and cancellation of planned projects [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating trade policies are adding further challenges, with tariffs on key raw materials increasing production costs by approximately 7% [4]. Strategic Pathways for Survival - Companies are focusing on cost reduction, capacity optimization, and digital transformation to navigate the challenges in the refining and petrochemical sectors [5]. - Operational transformation is essential for survival, with companies leveraging various strategies to enhance operations and profitability [5][6]. Production and Optimization - Linear programming (LP) models can provide insights to capture high-value opportunities with minimal investment, potentially increasing capacity by up to 5% [7]. - Advanced process control (APC) is being deployed to optimize operations and improve product yields, with potential cost reductions of $0.3 per barrel [8]. Efficient Maintenance - Effective maintenance strategies can significantly reduce costs and downtime, with potential savings of 5-15% on turnaround costs [10]. - Predictive maintenance is being utilized to monitor equipment health and reduce unplanned downtime [10]. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Optimization - Optimizing CAPEX is crucial for addressing tightening capital constraints and ensuring maximum returns while minimizing costs and risks [11]. - Structured methodologies like risk threat prioritization (RTP) are being employed to ensure rigorous evaluation of capital projects, leading to CAPEX reductions of 10-20% [11][13]. Sales Optimization - Optimizing commercial performance is vital for maintaining profitability, with effective sales strategies leveraging data-driven analysis to accelerate revenue growth [14]. - Dynamic pricing models based on customer willingness to pay are being adopted to maximize revenue and profit [15]. Conclusion - The Asian refining and petrochemical industries are entering a period of structural upheaval, with traditional advantages becoming less reliable [16]. - Future winners will be those companies that can adapt quickly to market changes, deeply integrate digital technologies, and optimize costs and product portfolios [16].