基于偏股基金三年年化收益，对牛市有什么预期？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the three-year annualized return of equity funds as a timing indicator for market trends, particularly in the context of the recent bull market in A-shares [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Analysis - The three-year annualized return of equity funds has been a focal point since the first wave of the bear market in 2022, highlighted by investor Dong Chengfei [3][4]. - Historical peaks of the three-year annualized return occurred in 2015 and 2021, both exceeding 30%, indicating a doubling of total returns over three years [4][17]. - The article references past bull and bear market cycles, noting that bull markets typically last between 2 to 3 years and 2 months [15]. Group 2: Future Projections - The author suggests that the bottom of the current bear market may occur in early 2024, with potential subsequent lows in mid-2024 [8][22]. - The analysis indicates that if the bear market bottom is established in early 2024, a three-year projection could lead to a peak around early 2027, assuming a minimum return of 30% [20][24]. - The potential for a bull market is further supported by the observation that the current three-year rolling annualized return is still negative, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a bubble phase [24][32]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Fund Performance - The article notes that the equity fund index has seen a cumulative increase of 46.8% since its bottom on February 5, 2024 [28]. - To achieve a three-year annualized return of 30%, a potential increase of 49.66% is required, emphasizing the importance of compounding effects [30][32]. - The performance of equity funds may not align perfectly with the broader A-share market, indicating that future trends could diverge based on market conditions [30][32].