热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The core viewpoint of Powell's speech indicates a shift to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the previous "neutral hawkish" position, highlighting a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][77] - Economic growth is slowing, with the actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 at 1.2%, half of that in 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows a significant decline in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening supply-demand balance [10][11] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework - Powell introduced a revised long-term monetary policy framework, reaffirming a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, marking a return to a more traditional approach [4][22][78] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Risks - Following Powell's speech, expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the anticipated number of cuts for 2025 increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 times [5][31][79] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [42][79] - The anticipated macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and a stabilizing economy, with potential risks of rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's value [53][79]