被玩坏的外卖大战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition among major Chinese internet companies in the food delivery and instant retail sectors, highlighting the unsustainable nature of their subsidy-driven strategies and the limited growth potential of the market [3][4][62]. Group 1: Competition Dynamics - The competition among Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan in the food delivery market is characterized by a focus on order volume rather than profitability, leading to significant financial losses for all players involved [3][4][20]. - Meituan holds a dominant market share in food delivery, with nearly 70% of the market, but its profit margin remains low at around 4% [8][14]. - The food delivery market's growth has plateaued, with a penetration rate exceeding 20% in 2022, necessitating policy-driven stimulation for further growth [11][12]. Group 2: Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail, defined as delivering a wide range of products quickly, is seen as a new battleground for internet companies, with Meituan capturing nearly 40% of the market share by 2024 [22][47]. - The article notes that instant retail is not a new concept but a derivative of "new retail," which aims to bridge online and offline sales through rapid delivery [26][33]. - Despite the potential for growth, the actual market capacity for instant retail is limited, with estimates suggesting a penetration rate of only 10% [46]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The financial burden of subsidies is significant, with Goldman Sachs estimating that Alibaba and JD.com will incur losses of 41 billion and 26 billion RMB, respectively, while Meituan's EBIT will decrease by 25 billion RMB [20]. - The article emphasizes that the current subsidy wars are unsustainable, as they do not lead to long-term customer loyalty and merely accelerate the market's saturation [56][60]. - The competition is increasingly viewed as a costly war with diminishing returns, reminiscent of historical conflicts where the costs outweighed the benefits [63][64].