深度丨美国就业，到底是好还是坏？【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoints - The US labor market is cooling down, with the three-month moving average of non-farm employment showing a downward trend, potentially nearing negative growth by October 2023 [2][5][6] - The quality of employment data has been questioned due to significant downward revisions in May and June data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs [9][10] - The unemployment rate is on the rise, reflecting a broader cooling in the labor market, with a decrease in active job seekers and an increase in the duration of unemployment [10][11][30] Employment Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have been the main contributors to job creation, accounting for about half of non-farm employment from January to July 2024, supported by government funding [3][18] - Cyclical industries such as manufacturing and construction are experiencing a slowdown in job growth, with high interest rates limiting business operations and hiring plans [19][23] - The tightening labor market is evident in the information and professional services sectors, where job vacancy rates have increased, likely due to rising demand for AI-related positions [24] Future Labor Market Outlook - There is potential for marginal labor to return to the job market, with an increase in young job seekers aged 19-24, which may lead to higher unemployment rates if labor demand does not improve [25][30] - Small businesses remain cautious, with no improvement in hiring plans due to uncertainties in future policies and trade negotiations [28] - The labor market is at a turning point, with supply potentially exceeding demand, leading to a continued rise in the unemployment rate [30]