中金 | 低空科技系列农业篇：田野上的无人机

Core Viewpoint - The integration of low-altitude economy and technology-driven agriculture is creating significant investment opportunities in the drone industry, particularly in agricultural modernization and efficiency improvements [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Food consumption significantly impacts residents' living standards, with food and beverage spending accounting for 30.4% of per capita consumption in the first half of 2025 [5]. - China, with 18% of the global population, consumes approximately 30% of the world's rice, 51% of pork, 46% of vegetables, 37% of fruits, and 40% of seafood, highlighting the importance of food security [5]. - The limited arable land, which constitutes only 8.2% of the global total, necessitates higher agricultural productivity to ensure food security [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The total arable land in China remained stable at 1.93 billion acres in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.58% since 2019 [13]. - The agricultural sector is primarily composed of smallholder farms, facing labor shortages and rising costs, which traditional farming methods cannot sustain [13][14]. - The demand for agricultural drones is driven by the need for efficient, large-scale operations, as the industry shifts towards mechanization and modernization [3][14]. Drone Applications and Benefits - Drones are well-suited for high-load, repetitive agricultural tasks, enhancing productivity, quality, environmental sustainability, and economic efficiency [3][16]. - Drones can increase crop yields through precise spraying and fertilization, reduce pesticide residues, and improve crop quality by minimizing soil compaction [16][17]. - The use of drones can lead to significant cost savings in water and pesticide usage, as demonstrated by a case study showing a 25% increase in yield and substantial reductions in operational costs [17]. Market Potential - The potential demand for agricultural drones in China is estimated to reach 6.24 million units, with a corresponding market value of 224.6 billion yuan, and an annual demand of 1.12 million units valued at 44.9 billion yuan [24]. - The service market for agricultural drones is projected to reach 225.6 billion yuan annually, driven by the increasing acceptance of professional services among small and medium-sized farmers [25][26]. Policy and Technological Drivers - The development of the agricultural drone industry is supported by favorable low-altitude economy policies and technological advancements that reduce costs and improve product performance [20][21]. - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to encourage the cultivation of skilled drone operators and provide subsidies for agricultural drones, enhancing the industry's growth prospects [20][21]. Industry Chain Perspective - The rapid development of agricultural drones is benefiting the entire industry chain, from upstream component suppliers to midstream brand manufacturers and downstream service providers [27][29]. - Upstream suppliers of key components such as sensors and batteries are expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements in the drone sector [29][30]. - Leading midstream companies like DJI and XAG dominate the market, with a combined market share of approximately 50% in the global agricultural drone market [31].