生成式 AI 无过热迹象！小摩：明年AI 资本支出增速至少 20%！

Core Viewpoints - Concerns about AI capital expenditure (capex) peaking in 2026 are overstated, with strong growth certainty expected in 2026-2027 [1][2] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are well-positioned to sustain capital expenditure growth due to increasing operating cash flow [4][6] - The entry of new investment players and the expansion of AI application scenarios are driving continued investment in AI [2][9] AI Capital Expenditure Growth - Morgan Stanley predicts a minimum growth rate of 20% for AI capex in 2026, with potential for further growth in 2027 if enterprise-level AI adoption increases [2][8] - The top four CSPs (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) are expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in EBITDA and operating cash flow from 2022 to 2026 [6][8] - Capital expenditure for these CSPs is projected to rise from $150 billion in 2022 to $398 billion in 2026, while free cash flow is expected to maintain a CAGR of 16% [6][8] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese market for AI capex is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth driven by companies like ByteDance and Alibaba [12] - Data center companies and server manufacturers are positioned to benefit from both NVIDIA and domestic chip supply growth [12] - The semiconductor supply chain, particularly for Google TPU and NVIDIA, is expected to see robust growth, with Google leading in 2026 [13][14] Pricing Trends and Earnings Adjustments - Price increases in non-AI sectors are becoming widespread, which could drive the next round of earnings per share (EPS) adjustments [18] - Areas experiencing price increases include DRAM, BT substrates, and power ICs, while some sectors may still face downward pricing pressure [18] - The valuation of Asian tech stocks remains reasonable, with expectations for further EPS adjustments driven by rising prices and sustained AI demand [19][20]