反内卷“劲风”，吹向锂电材料

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is signaling a clear anti-involution stance through closed-door meetings among key players, focusing on self-discipline and addressing overcapacity issues in the phosphoric iron lithium and diaphragm sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Meetings and Self-Discipline - A closed-door meeting involving 10 phosphoric iron lithium companies was held in Shenzhen to discuss solutions for overcapacity, particularly outdated capacity [2] - A subsequent meeting for wet diaphragm companies took place in Suzhou, following an earlier meeting for dry diaphragm companies [2] - The meetings emphasized the need for industry self-discipline, with a consensus that sales prices should remain above cost and no new capacity should be added beyond planned levels [3] Group 2: Policy and Compliance Measures - The anti-involution approach is not limited to self-discipline but also involves policy and compliance measures aimed at addressing supply-side structural issues [4][6] - Policies are expected to raise production thresholds, strengthen qualification reviews, and clarify pricing and cost lines, directly impacting inefficient or non-compliant capacities [6] Group 3: Market Recovery and Capacity Utilization - The lithium battery industry has been in a bottom cycle for an extended period, with signs of recovery expected by 2025 in terms of shipment growth, capacity utilization, and pricing [5][9] - In the first half of 2025, the overall growth rate of the lithium battery supply chain is projected to exceed 40%, with significant increases in battery shipments and material production [10] Group 4: Price Dynamics and Market Competition - While diaphragm prices continue to decline, other main materials have passed their low points, indicating a potential for price recovery [11] - Successful anti-involution efforts could lead to a comprehensive price rebound in the lithium battery industry, with average battery prices potentially increasing by double-digit percentages [12] - The focus of competition may shift from price to efficiency and technology as low-end capacities exit the market [12][14] Group 5: Capacity Utilization and Industry Trends - The overall capacity utilization in the phosphoric iron lithium sector remains low, but structural tensions are emerging, with some leading companies exceeding 90% utilization [16] - The exit of low-end capacities is expected to accelerate, particularly as new product generations and process upgrades come into play [16]