高工锂电·2025-08-27 10:47Core Viewpoint - The market needs to revise its price expectations for lithium carbonate as futures prices hit a new high of 90,000 yuan/ton due to production suspension news, while multiple lithium salt projects are ramping up capacity, stabilizing supply [3]. Supply Expansion - China Minmetals has officially started a 40,000-ton lithium salt steam transportation project, which will fully release 115,000 tons/year lithium salt capacity from China's salt lakes by October [4]. - Chuaneng Power's De'a Lithium Industry has successfully debugged its production of qualified battery-grade lithium salt, with a capacity of 15,000 tons/year for both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide expected to reach full production in August [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium extraction project in Xuanhan County, Sichuan, is expected to produce 45,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide this year [5]. - Zijin Lithium Yuan plans to launch a 25,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project by December, while Yahua Group's new 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide production line will be completed within the year [5]. - These five projects will contribute an additional 170,000 tons of lithium salt capacity for the year [6]. Future Supply Projections - The market anticipates that by 2025, an additional 260,000 tons of lithium carbonate supply will be added domestically, bringing total production to 800,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global output [7]. Cost and Production Insights - The share of low-cost lithium salt production is increasing, with salt lake lithium extraction becoming a significant source of new capacity due to its lower operating costs [8]. - The largest soluble potassium and magnesium salt deposit, the Qarhan Salt Lake, has historically suffered from technical bottlenecks, but the new steam project by China Minmetals is expected to enhance lithium recovery by 25% and reduce production costs by 12,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium has been actively investing in low-cost lithium mines, with its Mariana salt lake project producing 20,000 tons of lithium chloride this year [8]. Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in lithium spodumene prices have seen a significant rebound, with prices rising from 5,550 yuan/ton to 7,500 yuan/ton, marking the largest weekly increase of the year [11]. - Current market prices for lithium carbonate hover around 80,000 yuan/ton, with spodumene extraction still maintaining profit margins [11]. - The new mineral resources law has increased costs for low-grade lithium mica mines, leading to a projected 50% reduction in production capacity by 2025 [11]. Supply and Demand Balance - The oversupply situation for lithium carbonate is unlikely to change in the short term, but the extent of the oversupply may narrow by 2025 [16]. - The balance between upstream capacity release and downstream demand expansion will determine the price turning point for lithium carbonate [13]. - Recent inventory data shows that domestic lithium carbonate weekly inventory remains high at 140,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.5% [15].