房地产完成探底需满足哪些条件？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy adjustments in the real estate market of major Chinese cities, particularly Beijing and Shanghai, aimed at stimulating housing demand and stabilizing the market amidst ongoing challenges. It emphasizes the structural nature of these adjustments and the need for a gradual recovery in the real estate sector [2][3][4]. Policy Adjustments - Beijing has relaxed its housing purchase restrictions, allowing families to buy unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, signaling a structural loosening rather than a complete removal of restrictions [3][4]. - The adjustments are designed to guide housing demand towards outer city areas, promoting urban expansion and addressing diverse housing needs [4]. - Other first-tier cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou may follow Beijing's example, implementing similar structural adjustments, while Shenzhen's options are limited due to its geographical constraints [4]. Market Conditions - The real estate market continues to experience a downturn, with a 4.0% year-on-year decline in national commercial housing sales from January to July, and a 12% drop in real estate investment during the same period [5]. - The leverage ratio of households has decreased slightly to 61.1%, indicating a stabilization in borrowing capacity, but overall confidence in the real estate market remains low [5]. - The ongoing liquidity risks faced by real estate companies have led to a significant increase in credit defaults, with the total default amount during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period being 24 times that of the previous period [5]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the real estate market is undergoing a structural and trend-based deep adjustment influenced by demographic changes, urbanization slowdowns, and economic growth deceleration [6][8]. - For the market to reach a bottom, several conditions must be met, including a stable population growth, a reasonable economic growth rate, and a decrease in inventory levels [8][9]. - The anticipated demand for housing will increasingly come from improvement needs as the residential level has reached a relatively high standard [8]. Structural Changes - The article highlights the demographic shifts, including negative population growth and aging, which are expected to impact housing demand negatively [10]. - The potential for improvement in housing demand is seen in the middle-income group as GDP per capita rises, particularly in coastal and regional urban centers [10]. - The article predicts that the real estate market will stabilize after a period of adjustment, with a gradual recovery in sales and a decrease in inventory levels [12]. Recommendations - The article recommends facilitating transaction processes and encouraging structural policy adjustments in first-tier cities to stimulate market activity [13]. - It emphasizes the importance of aligning real estate policies with broader economic recovery efforts to enhance investor confidence and housing demand [13].