全天候策略再思考：多资产及权益内部的应用实践——数说资产配置系列之十二

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the All Weather Strategy developed by Bridgewater, emphasizing its robust performance and ability to withstand market fluctuations through a risk parity approach. The strategy has been made available in a more transparent ETF format in collaboration with State Street, with a current scale of approximately $204 million as of the end of May 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: All Weather Strategy Overview - The All Weather Strategy aims to diversify risk across various asset classes to mitigate impacts from different market environments, with a notable focus on risk parity principles [4][11]. - The asset allocation of the All Weather ETF as of March 2023 includes 76% nominal government bonds, 42% equities, and 39% commodities, with specific allocations to U.S. bonds (33%), U.K. bonds (9%), and gold (14%) [1][4]. - The ETF experienced significant volatility shortly after its launch, with a maximum drawdown of 8.78% in April 2023, but managed to recover to its initial value by the end of May [2][4]. Group 2: Risk Parity and Scenario Parity - The article introduces the concept of "Scenario Parity," which involves constructing asset baskets based on different macroeconomic scenarios (e.g., economic growth, inflation) and allocating them according to risk parity principles [11][12]. - The macro scenarios identified include: - Economic growth: equities and commodities - Economic downturn: nominal bonds, inflation-protected bonds, and gold - Rising inflation: commodities and inflation-protected bonds - Moderate inflation or deflation: nominal bonds and equities [11][12]. - Historical performance data indicates that the Scenario Parity approach yields higher annualized returns compared to traditional risk parity strategies, with a notable increase in performance during volatile market conditions [16][18]. Group 3: Macro Sensitivity and Internal Equity Practices - The article discusses the application of macro sensitivity analysis to construct equity portfolios that align with the All Weather Strategy, focusing on the sensitivity of different sectors to macroeconomic variables [22][41]. - The analysis identifies sectors with the highest and lowest sensitivity to economic conditions, liquidity, inflation, and credit, allowing for more informed asset allocation decisions [23][41]. - The performance of equity portfolios constructed using the Scenario Parity approach demonstrates superior returns and lower drawdowns compared to traditional risk parity and equal-weighted strategies, particularly in volatile market environments [44][46].