东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-08-27 13:23Investment Highlights - July sales: Production and wholesale meet expectations, exports exceed expectations. 1) Production: July heavy truck production was 81,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +58.4%/-17.4%; 2) Wholesale: July heavy truck wholesale sales were 85,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +45.6%/-13.3%; 3) Terminal sales: July heavy truck terminal sales were 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +38.3%/-7.2%; 4) Exports: July heavy truck export sales were 27,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +25.4%/-7.5%; 5) Inventory: July heavy truck enterprise inventory decreased by 4,000 units, and channel inventory decreased by 6,400 units. Current industry total inventory is 133,000 units, which is at a reasonable level [2][14][11]. Industry Structure - New energy heavy trucks saw a month-on-month decline, while natural gas heavy trucks continued to decline. July new energy heavy truck sales were 16,700 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +152%/-7.6%, and new energy penetration rate was 25.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +11.6/-0.1 percentage points. July natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -21.7%/+4.0%, and natural gas penetration rate was 21.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -16.7/-2.3 percentage points [14][38][41]. Market Share Dynamics - In July, Dongfeng and Foton's domestic sales share increased month-on-month, while heavy truck and Foton's export share also increased month-on-month. Terminal market share for July 2025 was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8%, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.4/+1.1/-1.9/+0.01/+3.5 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being +1.5/+0.8/-1.0/-0.8/+0.4 percentage points [3][51]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai's market share decreased month-on-month, falling to second place. In July, Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai's market shares were 16.8%, 17.8%, 15.6%, 8.9%, and 13.7%, respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -10.7/-0.8/-0.5/+1.7/+0.2 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being -1.1/+0.5/+0.5/-0.3/-0.2 percentage points [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance under the stimulus of the National IV policy throughout the year. Recommendations include China National Heavy Duty Truck A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement elasticity of FAW Jiefang and Foton [5][74].