CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) 21世纪经济报道·2025-08-28 00:26Core Viewpoint - The long winter for the duty-free giant is not over, as China Duty Free Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the duty-free industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Duty Free Group achieved operating revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.81% compared to the previous year, and over 51% lower than the peak in 2021 [1][3]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 32.77%, down 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.32%, down 1.34 percentage points [1]. - The company's gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 8.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.23% year-on-year, indicating significant pressure on profitability [3][4]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit decreased by 32.21% year-on-year, and the net cash flow from operating activities fell by 39.5% due to reduced sales revenue [4]. Market Dynamics - The duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for the first half of 2025 was 16.76 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year, with the number of duty-free shoppers decreasing by 26.2% to 2.482 million [3]. - Despite the overall decline, the company increased its market share in Hainan by nearly 1 percentage point, maintaining a leading position with an 82% market share in the Hainan duty-free market [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - To address performance pressures, China Duty Free Group is expanding its city duty-free store network, with stores in Shenzhen and Guangzhou recently opening [7][8]. - The new city duty-free stores aim to tap into the growing inbound tourism market, with a notable shift in foreign tourists' spending patterns towards shopping in China [10][11]. - The company is also pursuing international expansion, having secured operational rights for duty-free stores in Hong Kong and Macau, and entering the Vietnamese market [11][12]. - Collaborations with domestic brands are being established to promote "national trends" abroad, enhancing the company's product offerings [12]. Industry Outlook - The overall duty-free industry is facing challenges, with luxury brands reporting weak performance, indicating a continued softness in high-end consumer markets [12]. - Analysts predict that the company's net profit for 2025 could stabilize around 5.155 billion yuan, with a market capitalization estimate between 128.8 billion and 154.6 billion yuan, although some have lowered profit expectations due to current demand pressures [12].