GGII：磷酸铁锂赛道“淘汰赛”加剧

Core Viewpoint - The phosphoric iron lithium (LiFePO4) cathode material industry is entering a new phase of expansion after a period of overcapacity and stagnation, driven by high growth in demand for energy storage lithium batteries and the mass production of next-generation materials from H2 2024 to H1 2025 [5][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The phosphoric iron lithium cathode material industry is experiencing a downturn due to overcapacity, but is expected to see a resurgence in production starting in 2024 H2 [5]. - By H1 2025, the shipment volume of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in China is projected to reach 1.61 million tons, representing a 68% year-on-year increase [5]. - The effective capacity utilization rate for phosphoric iron lithium materials is expected to exceed 70% by 2025 and 75% by 2027 [5]. Group 2: Structural Capacity Issues - There is a structural capacity shortage in the phosphoric iron lithium materials industry, with some leading companies achieving over 90% capacity utilization, while many others struggle due to quality issues [8][9]. - The industry is witnessing a significant upgrade in product quality, with the introduction of third and fourth generation phosphoric iron lithium materials, which is driving the adoption of advanced production processes [8]. - Certain capacities are expected to be eliminated due to inefficiencies and inability to meet new product standards, leading to structural tightness in the industry [9][10]. Group 3: Seasonal Fluctuations and International Expansion - The phosphoric iron lithium materials industry experiences seasonal fluctuations, with the second half of the year typically seeing 151% of the first half's shipment volume [11]. - Due to trade barriers, overseas capacity for phosphoric iron lithium materials is limited, with only 30,000 tons currently established, while plans for overseas capacity reach 580,000 tons [13]. Group 4: Future Expansion Characteristics - The next round of expansion in the phosphoric iron lithium cathode material industry will primarily involve companies with product advantages, focusing on western regions and overseas markets [14]. - High-end products will dominate the expansion, particularly those utilizing advanced production lines [14]. - Equipment for production is expected to become larger and more efficient, with a focus on longer kilns [14]. Group 5: Impact on Equipment Manufacturers - Leading phosphoric iron lithium equipment manufacturers are likely to see an increase in market share as the industry recovers, while many smaller companies may struggle to secure orders [15]. - Companies with product, quality, and scale advantages are expected to continue winning contracts in a competitive environment [15].