国泰海通 · 晨报0828｜交运：公商走弱致暑运平淡，飞机订购不改规划低增

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of weak public and business travel demand on the summer travel season, while also addressing the low growth in aircraft orders and the implications for the aviation industry in China [2][4]. Group 1: Summer Travel Summary - The summer travel season saw a year-on-year increase of over 3% in air passenger traffic during July and August, with a 1 percentage point rise in load factor, both reaching historical highs [2]. - Domestic airfares decreased by 4-5% year-on-year, which was lower than previous expectations [2]. - Supply growth in the domestic market remained low, with only a 2% increase in domestic passenger flights during the summer season [2]. - There was a notable increase in leisure travel demand, particularly among families and young travelers, contributing to high load factors and a subsequent rise in ticket prices [2]. - Unexpected weakness in public and business travel demand led to a significant drop in ticket prices as the summer season came to a close, although a recovery in demand is anticipated in September due to major events [2]. Group 2: Off-Season Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to continue strict control over flight schedules, which may help mitigate losses during the off-season [3]. - The supply in the domestic market is projected to grow slowly, with limited room for turnover improvement [3]. - A potential price war in Q4 2024 could lead to significant losses for airlines, but a shift towards better revenue management is anticipated in the medium term [3]. Group 3: Aircraft Orders - Recent reports indicate that China plans to order a batch of Boeing aircraft, but this will not alter the planned low growth of the fleet [4]. - The historical data shows that China's civil aviation fleet planning is characterized by strong planning and execution, with large orders typically made every few years to secure discounts [4]. - The expected net growth of the fleet is around 5% annually, translating to over 200 new aircraft, despite a low willingness for capital expenditure due to low investment returns [4]. - The article emphasizes the long-term growth logic of the aviation industry in China, suggesting a contrarian investment approach [4].