没有不切风格的大牛市

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy known as the "dumbbell strategy," which combines dividend stocks with either small-cap or technology stocks, and evaluates its success in the current market environment [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market often follows the "dark forest" principle, where participants are competitors rather than allies, leading to a competitive environment [4]. - In a bull market, the initial rise typically starts from assets that were previously overlooked by institutional investors or new assets, benefiting from light trading volumes and lack of profit-taking pressure [6][7]. - The article emphasizes that no investment strategy can consistently perform well throughout a bull market, as asset rotation and style shifts are inevitable [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The success of an investment strategy often leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy, where increased buying activity drives up asset prices, attracting more investors [8]. - The article warns that if a strategy becomes too popular, it may signal an impending decline, as the influx of participants can create a bubble [9]. - The need for rotation among different asset classes is crucial for sustaining a bull market; otherwise, the market may only experience a structural rally rather than a historical bull market [7][9]. Group 3: Risk and Timing - The timing of strategy shifts is critical; early exits can yield profits, while late exits may result in losses, akin to the fate of a eunuch trying to enter the palace [9][10]. - The article suggests that the market's momentum can quickly reverse, and participants must be vigilant about market signals to avoid significant losses [9].