美国为何如此急于“混改”英特尔？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. government's efforts to revitalize its manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on Intel, as part of a broader strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Initiatives - The U.S. manufacturing sector's vulnerability was highlighted in 2007, with supply chain weaknesses exceeding 10%, leading to a collective realization post-2008 financial crisis about the risks of deindustrialization [5][6]. - Bipartisan consensus has emerged around the need to "bring manufacturing home," especially in light of global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic [7][8]. - Key initiatives include the Obama administration's infrastructure investments, the Biden administration's CHIPS Act, and Trump's "Make America Great Again" agenda, all aimed at revitalizing manufacturing [8][9]. Group 2: Manufacturing Metrics and Performance - From 2010 to 2023, U.S. manufacturing employment increased by over 1.3 million, but the share of employment in the secondary sector continues to decline [11]. - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing exceeded $740 billion in 2023, more than doubling since 2010, particularly in electronics and transportation equipment [11]. - Despite a 5.9% increase in manufacturing value added, its share of GDP has decreased from 11.9% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2023, indicating ongoing challenges [15]. Group 3: Supply Chain Diversification - The share of imports from China has decreased from 22% at its peak to below 15%, with significant increases in imports from Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam [12]. - However, the overall effectiveness of these policies remains questionable, as the U.S. trade deficit reached a record $1.1 trillion in 2023, doubling compared to 20 years ago [15]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Certain sectors, like chemicals and high-tech manufacturing (medical devices, aerospace), have shown resilience and growth, while the semiconductor industry continues to struggle despite substantial government support [18][24]. - The U.S. chemical industry is projected to capture about 15% of the global market by 2025, benefiting from energy cost advantages and a focus on high-end materials [22]. - The automotive sector faces significant challenges, with production dropping below 1.5 million vehicles, and reliance on Mexican components increasing for electric vehicles [25]. Group 5: Challenges to Manufacturing Return - High labor costs in the U.S., averaging $34 per hour, significantly hinder the competitiveness of mid-range manufacturing compared to East Asia [28]. - Despite some advantages in energy and land costs, the overall cost structure makes it difficult for many manufacturing sectors to return to the U.S. [29][30]. - High-end manufacturing sectors may have a better chance of returning due to their reliance on technology and brand value, which can offset higher labor costs [31][32]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. strategy of using subsidies and tariffs to protect high-end manufacturing may not diminish China's competitive edge in mid-range manufacturing, as China's supply chain remains robust [34]. - The future of U.S. manufacturing will depend on its ability to maintain high-value production while navigating the challenges posed by global competition and domestic cost structures [34].