国泰海通｜非银：券商主动权益蓄势，如何看待弹性

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the flexibility in equity self-operation remains a significant investment strategy within the brokerage sector, with a gradual shift towards moderate elasticity in active equity operations, while high-elasticity investment targets are expected to be limited in the future [1][4]. Summary by Sections Equity Self-Operation and Market Performance - As of August 25, 2023, the Wind All A index has risen by 16% and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index by 28% since Q3 2025, indicating a notable increase in market trading activity [1]. - Equity self-operation is identified as a crucial source of performance elasticity for brokerages, with a focus on self-operated business complemented by investment banking and private equity follow-ups [1]. Transformation and Elasticity Trends - Over the past decade, brokerage self-operation has shown a trend of "fixed income expansion and stagnant equity growth," with self-operated fixed income assets increasing from 908.1 billion to 4.5 trillion, while equity self-operation has decreased from 449.7 billion to 399.2 billion, resulting in equity self-operation accounting for only 8% of investment assets [2]. - The current environment shows that brokerages are gradually building momentum in active equity, as evidenced by the recent approval from the board of China Merchants Securities to increase the upper limit of equity self-operation [2]. Profit Contribution and Market Conditions - In Q3 2024, equity self-operation is expected to contribute over 20% of incremental profits, with smaller brokerages exhibiting greater elasticity [3]. - The financial results are anticipated to reflect stronger performance elasticity due to market uplift, with the Wind All A index rising by 18% in Q3 2024 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The article concludes that while brokerages are moving towards moderate elasticity in active equity, high-elasticity investment targets will remain scarce, necessitating collaboration among stakeholders, management, and execution teams [4].