李迅雷专栏 | 大国债务：经济增长的代价

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising macro leverage ratio in China, which has increased to 300.4% in Q2 2025, and compares the debt costs of economic growth among China, the US, Japan, and Germany, highlighting the implications of rising debt levels on economic performance [1][3]. Group 1: Macro Leverage Ratio Trends - China's macro leverage ratio has shown a significant upward trend, increasing from 239.5% in 2019 to 286.5% by the end of 2024, the most pronounced increase among the four countries analyzed [3][5]. - In contrast, Germany, Japan, and the US experienced a "sharp rise and fall" pattern in their leverage ratios, with declines expected by 2024, while China's ratio continues to rise steadily [3][5]. Group 2: Sectoral Debt Analysis - The macro leverage ratio can be broken down into three sectors: households, non-financial enterprises, and government. The household leverage ratios in China, Germany, Japan, and the US have remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations [5][8]. - Non-financial enterprise leverage in China has shown a "rise-fall-rise" pattern, increasing from 125.5% in 2019 to a peak of 139.4% in Q3 2024, driven by significant investments in emerging industries [8][9]. Group 3: Government Debt Dynamics - The government leverage ratio in China has risen from 59.6% at the end of 2019 to 88.4% by the end of 2024, contrasting with the trends in Germany, Japan, and the US, where government leverage ratios peaked and then declined [13][25]. - The increase in China's government leverage is not solely linked to international economic crises, indicating a potential weakening of the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies over time [25][26]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Debt Efficiency - The article suggests that the rising leverage ratio may be a result of insufficient economic growth, as nominal GDP growth has lagged behind debt growth, with China's nominal GDP growth being slower than that of the US and other developed nations [40][41]. - To reduce the cost of maintaining growth, the article emphasizes the need for improved efficiency in the use of debt resources, advocating for better capital allocation and investment in human capital and technology [47][48].