中国开放式基金与ETF资金流全景：从增量承压到规模新纪元

Core Insights - The total assets under management for open-end funds and ETFs reached a record high of 29.6 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with non-money market fund management size increasing from 11.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2022 to 15.3 trillion yuan, a growth of 35% [2][8]. Fund Flows and Performance - In the first half of 2025, public funds experienced a slowdown in capital inflow, with non-money market funds attracting a net inflow of approximately 315.6 billion yuan, only about a quarter of the 1.3 trillion yuan net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [11]. - Bond funds have consistently attracted the largest inflow since 2023, with a net inflow of 342.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while mixed funds continued to see outflows for the fourth consecutive year [11][12]. - Stock funds saw a significant decline in net inflows, with only 77.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking the first substantial drop since 2021 [12]. - Commodity funds experienced rapid growth, achieving a net inflow of 64.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, nearly double the inflow from 2024, driven by rising gold prices [12]. Passive vs Active Management - The past three years have seen a breakthrough in the inflow of passive funds, which have driven the overall net inflow in the non-money market fund sector since 2022. Active funds, on the other hand, only recorded a slight net inflow of 154.1 billion yuan in 2023, with outflows in other years [14]. - Passive products have gained significant traction, particularly in bond and commodity funds, while mixed and alternative funds have seen continuous outflows due to the absence of index-based passive products [14]. QDII Fund Trends - As of June 30, 2025, QDII funds experienced a net outflow of 11.75 billion yuan, primarily due to a slowdown in inflows across most categories, despite an overall growth in QDII fund size to approximately 570 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the end of 2024 [3][24]. ETF Market Dynamics - The domestic ETF market has entered a phase of rapid growth since 2022, with a record net inflow of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight slowdown in 2025, achieving approximately 400 million yuan in net inflow in the first half of 2025 [29]. - Bond ETFs saw a significant increase in both fund numbers and asset size, with a net inflow of over 200 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, surpassing stock ETFs for the first time [31]. - The market share of the top three ETF providers, including Huaxia Fund and E Fund, accounted for 46.4% of the total market as of June 30, 2025, indicating a strong concentration in the ETF market [34]. Competitive Landscape - As of June 30, 2025, the top 10 fund companies accounted for 44% of the total non-money market fund size, with the top 20 companies holding 66%, reflecting a strengthening headwind effect in the industry [4][38]. - The competition among fund companies remains intense, with some experiencing net outflows, while others continue to grow steadily, highlighting the dynamic nature of the market [39].