中金缪延亮：牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变迁视角

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a nearly 10-year high, is primarily driven by capital inflows rather than significant improvements in domestic fundamentals or unexpected stimulus policies. This indicates a divergence between economic stability and market enthusiasm, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and capital flow is complex and interdependent [2][3][10]. Market Review Since the Beginning of the Year - The market has experienced a three-phase journey since the beginning of the year, with a notable decline in the US dollar and a strong performance in global equities, particularly in emerging markets and Chinese assets [4][5][6]. - The first phase (January to March) saw a narrative shift, leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 30% and A-shares showing moderate gains, driven by technology sector performance [4]. - The second phase (early April) was marked by panic due to unexpected tariff announcements, resulting in significant declines in global risk assets, including a 13% drop in the Hang Seng Index [5]. - The third phase (mid-April to present) has been characterized by improved tariff expectations and a declining dollar, which has driven a global stock market rally, with A-shares leading the way [6][10]. Analysis of Bull Market Drivers - The report identifies several popular hypotheses regarding the drivers of the current bull market, including: 1. National Team Put Option Theory: The buying of ETFs by state-owned entities has provided support to the market, but this alone does not explain the sustained upward trend [10]. 2. Domestic Economic Policy Adjustment: While macroeconomic policy shifts have stabilized the market, expectations for stimulus have declined since late last year, indicating that policy adjustments are not the primary driver of the bull market [10][11]. 3. Low Interest Rate Drive: Although lower interest rates have made equities more attractive, the relationship is complex, as rising risk premiums can offset the benefits of lower rates [10][12]. 4. Household Deposit Migration: The significant increase in household savings since 2022 may have contributed to stock market investments, but this is seen as a reaction to prior market performance rather than a primary cause [14][16]. 5. Dollar Depreciation: The decline of the dollar has supported A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but historical data shows that dollar movements do not consistently correlate with Chinese stock performance [16][17]. 6. Innovation Narrative Reversal: The emergence of DeepSeek and advancements in military and innovative pharmaceuticals have reshaped the narrative around Chinese innovation, contributing to market optimism [17][19]. Market Outlook - The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary order is viewed as a potential core driver of the current bull market, with implications for capital flows and asset pricing [31][32]. - Despite the current market enthusiasm, the sustainability of this rally will depend on macroeconomic policy support and the underlying fundamentals of the Chinese economy [34].