热点思考 | 经济的“韧性”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 remained high at 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by strong exports and the "two new" policies boosting manufacturing investment and consumer goods [2][10] - Recent months have shown signs of economic concerns, particularly in the "two new" sectors, with retail sales growth declining to 3.7% in July due to factors like e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies [2][10] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies falling to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, and construction area growth dropping significantly [2][17] Inflation and Price Transmission - The inflation performance in July was below market expectations, with PPI remaining low at -3.6%, attributed to the inability of upstream price increases to be transmitted downstream due to lower capacity utilization in midstream and downstream sectors [3][29] - The current capacity utilization rates are 76.7% for upstream, 74% for midstream, and 74.7% for downstream, indicating a blockage in price transmission from upstream to downstream [3][29] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with service production index only slightly down to 5.8% in July [4][38] - Service retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 saw a minor decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating stable performance, with certain service categories like tourism and transportation experiencing double-digit growth [4][38] Policy Support for Services - Recent policies are increasingly favoring investments in the service sector, with loan interest subsidy policies expected to generate around 210 billion yuan in new credit for service sector entities [5][49] - The large-scale support phase for manufacturing investment appears to be over, with a shift in investment growth momentum towards the service sector anticipated [5][49] Export Performance - Current strong export performance is attributed to 70% stemming from improvements in external demand and market share, rather than the 30% related to short-term "export grabbing" factors [6][101] - In July, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from exports to emerging economies and non-US developed countries, reflecting improved demand and market share recovery [6][101] - The potential for further increases in exports to emerging economies is supported by rising investment and demand in these regions, alongside China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa [6][73]