宋雪涛：当A股长期估值修复遇到新一轮全球水牛

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bull market driven by a combination of favorable external liquidity conditions, stable policy environment, and unique domestic factors that enhance its attractiveness [4][12][34]. Group 1: Global Market Context - In August, the A-share index reached new highs not seen since December 2021, with trading volumes frequently exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating an accelerating bull market [4]. - The global market is witnessing synchronized growth, but A-shares stand out due to their robust fundamentals and low valuation levels, which provide a fertile ground for valuation recovery [4]. Group 2: U.S. Policy and Global Liquidity - The resolution of U.S. policy uncertainties, particularly regarding trade agreements and fiscal expansion, has laid a foundation for the rise of global risk assets, including A-shares [5]. - The introduction of a $4 trillion "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to increase the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP, shifting expectations from fiscal contraction to expansion, which supports market growth [5][6]. Group 3: A-share Market's Unique Characteristics - A-shares benefit from a 5.3% real GDP growth rate in the first half of the year, which is rare among major economies, and are expected to maintain around 5% growth for the year [12]. - The rise of AI technologies and the overseas expansion of innovative pharmaceutical companies are seen as key drivers for A-share market potential [12]. - The A-share market is experiencing a unique liquidity environment, with the renminbi appreciating, making Chinese assets more attractive to foreign investors [13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Capital Inflows - The A-share market's recent surge is characterized by strong participation from retail and leveraged funds, with foreign capital also showing renewed interest [16]. - In July, household deposits decreased significantly, while non-bank institution deposits increased, indicating a shift in risk appetite among investors [17]. - The current low proportion of household deposits relative to A-share market capitalization suggests significant potential for capital inflows into the stock market [17]. Group 5: Earnings Recovery Potential - Despite the strong market momentum, July's macroeconomic data showed signs of weakness, indicating that current market drivers are primarily liquidity and sentiment rather than fundamental improvements [30]. - Investment in fixed assets has declined, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments turning negative, while the real estate market continues to cool [30]. - Positive signals in corporate liquidity data suggest that earnings may begin to recover in the coming year, although the sustainability of this recovery remains contingent on the real estate market and external export conditions [31]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the A-share market's upward trend depends on the continuity of favorable external macro conditions and the domestic regulatory environment [34]. - Any shifts in geopolitical stability or U.S. policy could quickly alter market sentiment, while internal regulatory measures may impact market dynamics [34].