风险月报 | 权益市场估值、情绪与市场预期形成共振，近1/3行业估值高于历史60%分位

Core Viewpoint - The overall risk level in the market is showing a positive trend, transitioning from stability to strength, with the risk scoring of the CSI 300 index significantly increasing from 49.80 to 59.65 [2] Market Valuation - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has risen from 55.08 to 59.68, indicating a continuous upward movement in the overall market valuation [2] - Among 28 first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, pharmaceuticals, real estate, and defense have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while only agriculture has a valuation below the historical 10th percentile [2] Market Expectations - The market expectation score has increased from 56.00 to 60.00, reaching a six-month high, driven by positive fiscal revenue growth in July, although the budget completion rate remains slow [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved significantly, with the score rising from 41.41 to 59.44, indicating a shift from cautious trading to a more neutral and positive state [3] - The scores for margin trading and public fund issuance have also increased, suggesting a recovery of retail funds into the equity market [3] Economic Data - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and significant declines in fixed asset investment and real estate [8][10] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8] Financial Indicators - The M2 money supply growth rate increased to 8.80%, while M1 growth rose to 5.60%, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions [10] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%, showing a slight increase from June [10] Structural Adjustments - The report highlights the need for diversification in investment strategies to mitigate structural volatility risks, as market recovery trends are accompanied by accelerated rotation among sectors [3]