棕榈油：多头定价会有个终点？

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].