国泰海通｜非银：利变产品转型深化，资负改善可期

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is transitioning from traditional insurance products to "variable benefit" products represented by participating insurance, which is beneficial for reducing rigid liability costs and improving asset-liability matching, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1][2]. Group 1: Transition in Product Strategy - In a low-interest-rate environment, the previous reliance on traditional insurance products is becoming unsustainable for insurance companies. The demand for financial insurance products, such as increasing death benefit whole life insurance, has surged due to their ability to lock in returns. However, the mismatch between liability costs and investment returns has increased pressure on asset-liability matching [1]. - The product structure's high dependence on interest spreads has heightened uncertainty in profitability under low-interest conditions. The substantial pressure on asset-liability management contrasts with the rapid growth in current profits, indicating a potentially unsustainable operational model [1]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Guidance - The shift towards participating insurance is expected to be firmly supported by regulatory guidance aimed at reducing liability costs. The realization rate of dividends is expected to be capped, which will help improve interest spread losses. Companies with strong investment capabilities are anticipated to benefit more from this transition [2]. - The sales capabilities of agents will be tested with the shift to participating insurance, and channel transformation is expected to deepen further. The importance of asset-liability management is increasing, with the negative impact of low-margin VFA policies on profitability becoming more pronounced [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Currently, life insurance companies are firmly pursuing the transition to participating insurance, which is expected to alleviate rigid liability cost pressures and enhance net profit and net asset stability. Long-term success in this transition will depend on collaboration across channels, products, and investments [2]. - In a stable stock market environment, it is recommended to focus on undervalued and underweighted blue-chip stocks, shifting from a "marginal thinking" approach based on fundamentals to a "total risk-return ratio" perspective [2].