华尔街前瞻阿里巴巴财报：外卖价格战施压利润，云业务与AI成亮点

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Alibaba's Q2 total revenue to grow by 5% year-on-year, with cloud business projected to achieve over 20% growth, while overall profits will be significantly pressured due to the 50 billion RMB subsidy plan for Taobao Flash Sale [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - According to FactSet, Alibaba's Q2 revenue is expected to reach 255.2 billion RMB (approximately 35.5 billion USD), with adjusted EPS projected to decline by 6% to 2.16 USD [2] - Guohai Securities predicts total revenue of 249 billion RMB, a 2% year-on-year increase, but adjusted EBITA is expected to drop by 15% to 38.2 billion RMB [3] - Citigroup forecasts Q2 total revenue of 252.6 billion RMB, a 3.9% increase, but non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline to 32.1 billion RMB due to increased investment in the delivery business [3] Cloud Business and AI Growth - Analysts predict Alibaba's cloud business will continue to be a major growth engine, with Citigroup estimating a 21% year-on-year revenue increase to 32.1 billion RMB [4] - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion RMB (over 50 billion USD) in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, exceeding the total of the past decade [4] - IDC reports that Alibaba Cloud holds a 23% market share in China's AI infrastructure as a service (IaaS) market, ranking first domestically [4] Impact of Delivery Price War - Alibaba's core e-commerce business is adopting aggressive investment strategies to capture users amid a slowing domestic consumption environment and strong competition [9] - Since the launch of "Taobao Flash Sale," daily order volume surged from under 30 million to over 100 million during promotional events [10] - Alibaba announced a 50 billion RMB investment in delivery and instant logistics subsidies over the next 12 months, with estimated losses exceeding 10 billion RMB in Q2 alone [11] Business Integration and Synergy Effects - Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce business group is beginning to show synergy effects, enhancing user engagement and transaction frequency [13] - Citigroup estimates that the new Taotian Group (TTG) will achieve Q2 revenue of 134.6 billion RMB, a 6.5% year-on-year increase, but EBITA is expected to decline by 18.4% [13] Profit Pressure and Investment Cycle - Bank of America has significantly lowered its EBITA margin forecast for TTG from 41.2% to 34.2%, with overall EBITA expected to decline by 15% [14] - Despite short-term profit pressures, the International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) is expected to break even, which may alleviate some profit pressure on the group [14] International Business and Market Dynamics - Strong performance of AliExpress in markets like South Korea and the launch of new businesses in automotive sales are injecting new momentum into Alibaba's international operations [15] - Recent consumer stimulus measures from the Chinese government may indirectly benefit Alibaba's domestic e-commerce business [16] - Despite these positive factors, Alibaba's valuation remains significantly lower than international peers, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the regulatory environment and geopolitical risks [16]