英伟达强劲财报也无法消除中国风险

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's financial performance for May to July 2025 reached record profits, with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing negotiations with the U.S. government to address the significant Chinese market, aiming to prevent competitors from rising globally [1][3]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 56% year-on-year increase in revenue for May to July, reaching $46.743 billion, and a 59% increase in net profit to $26.422 billion, both setting historical highs and exceeding market expectations [3]. - The company forecasts revenue of approximately $54 billion for August to October, a 54% increase compared to the same period last year, also surpassing market expectations [3]. Product Development and Market Strategy - Nvidia continues to benefit from the demand for high-performance AI semiconductors, with plans to launch the next generation AI semiconductor "Rubin" in 2026, following the recent release of "Blackwell" [3][11]. - The company's software advantage, particularly the CUDA development environment, has become a significant barrier to entry for competitors, making it difficult for them to switch from Nvidia products even if they develop high-performance semiconductors [3]. China Market Dynamics - The stock market is closely monitoring developments in the Chinese market, especially after the U.S. government placed Nvidia's AI semiconductor "H20" under export controls in April, which led to halted shipments [5][6]. - In July, the U.S. government indicated a willingness to allow the resumption of H20 exports, with Nvidia estimating potential sales of $2 billion to $5 billion in China for August to October, although this was not included in their earnings forecast [5][6]. - Nvidia's revenue from the Chinese market accounted for only 13% of total revenue as of January 2025, a significant decrease from the previous year, while revenue from markets outside the U.S. still constitutes over half of total revenue [9]. Political and Competitive Landscape - Nvidia has increased its lobbying efforts, spending $1.56 million in the first half of 2025, a nearly fivefold increase from the previous year, as it seeks to navigate the complex political landscape regarding U.S.-China relations [7]. - The company faces competition from Chinese firms like Huawei and Cambricon, which are developing alternative products and encouraging domestic AI developers to shift away from Nvidia [9][11]. - Nvidia's strategy includes exploring the introduction of higher-performance products in the Chinese market, with ongoing negotiations with the U.S. government regarding export conditions and potential revenue-sharing agreements [11].