光伏周价格 | 反“内卷”政策发酵：光伏产业链四大环节价格逆势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of policies on various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules [5][11][13]. Supply Situation - The polysilicon market is experiencing a continuous increase in supply due to new production capacity and existing lines ramping up output, with expected monthly increments exceeding 20,000 tons [5]. - The wafer market is facing structural oversupply, with total inventory reaching approximately 20 GW, primarily driven by the 210RN segment [10]. Demand and Inventory - Despite the increase in supply, demand has not kept pace, leading to a cautious market with downstream customers showing weak purchasing intentions. Polysilicon inventory is expected to surpass 400,000 tons by the end of the month [6]. - In the wafer segment, demand remains relatively flat, with battery manufacturers adopting a cautious approach to procurement, resulting in increased inventory pressure [11]. Price Trends - Although the supply-demand fundamentals are weak, prices are showing an upward trend due to market sentiment influenced by production cut rumors and anti-"involution" policy expectations. Prices for polysilicon have generally risen above RMB 50 per kilogram [7]. - In the wafer segment, prices have unexpectedly increased despite oversupply, driven by a collective pricing strategy among leading companies in response to policy expectations [11][15]. - The battery segment is witnessing a firm price increase, supported by rising production costs from upstream materials and a proactive pricing response from battery manufacturers [13]. Module Segment - The module production is expected to see a slight increase in September, indicating manufacturers' confidence in market prospects [14]. - Module prices are supported by multiple factors, including a consensus against below-cost competition, leading to a stable pricing environment [15].