美国预算赤字和贸易逆差：收益率曲线陡峭化和信用评级下调的催化剂

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy due to expanding trade and budget deficits, which are leading to a steeper yield curve and weakening credit conditions [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The US GDP is projected to contract by 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced government spending, although this is partially offset by rising consumer spending and exports [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, imports surged by 41.3% before tariffs were fully implemented, with March imports reaching $346 billion and the trade deficit widening to $163 billion [1][3]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index fell by 9% from March to April 2025, yet job creation exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Despite the resilience of the job market, the implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact employment conditions [2]. Trade Deficit Dynamics - The overall trade deficit has increased since the implementation of tariffs, despite a reduction in the trade deficit with China during Trump's first term [2][4]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from supply chain shifts, increasing their trade surplus with the US [2]. Credit and Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing federal debt, with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widening by 20 basis points [3][4]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-month high amid concerns over fiscal sustainability and trade tensions [3][5]. Future Projections - The tax reform bill passed by the House is expected to add $3.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, potentially pushing the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP in the coming years [5]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 8% to 10% over the four-year term, with long-term bond yields expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 6% in the coming years [6].