为什么不要加杠杆？ | 思考汇

Core Viewpoint - Leverage is not a shortcut to wealth but a double-edged sword that amplifies both risks and returns, often leading to significant losses in volatile markets [7][8]. Group 1: The Nature of Leverage - Leverage itself does not create value and is not a low-risk, high-return arbitrage tool [8]. - Leveraged ETFs experience "volatility drag," which erodes returns over time, especially in fluctuating markets [9][28]. - The asymmetry of gains and losses is exacerbated by leverage, making it more challenging to recover from losses [12][17]. Group 2: Risks of Leveraged ETFs - A 3x leveraged ETF can theoretically become worthless if the underlying index drops more than 33.33% in a single day [14]. - The concept of "fixed leverage trap" indicates that after a loss, the base for future leverage is reduced, complicating recovery [17]. - High management fees and tracking errors in leveraged ETFs further diminish returns, akin to physical energy losses [21]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Market Conditions - The 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) has shown impressive annualized returns of over 30% in certain periods, outperforming broader indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 [23][40]. - However, the extreme volatility and significant drawdowns, such as in 2022, highlight the risks associated with leveraged products [26][40]. - The timing of market conditions is crucial for leveraged investments, making long-term holding risky [27][41]. Group 4: Guidelines for Ordinary Investors - Leverage amplifies both risk and reward, making it essential for investors to approach it with caution [47]. - The long-term viability of investments should focus on value creation rather than merely leveraging returns [53]. - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid heavy leverage and to prioritize survival and long-term investment strategies over short-term gains [55].