张瑜：从竞技到经济——算算体育赛事的“经济账”

Core Viewpoint - The core constraint on the development of China's sports economy lies not in consumer willingness but in income levels and industrial structure [3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Potential - Income is the decisive factor for sports consumption, with China's sports consumption as a percentage of income comparable to developed countries at approximately 0.84% in 2020, while per capita sports spending is less than $40, which is 1/6 of the average in major developed countries [3][5]. - There is a strong correlation between regional income levels and sports consumption, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 across 23 sample provinces and cities, indicating that higher income leads to increased sports spending [5][15]. - Japan's experience shows that sports consumption rises during economic upturns and declines during stagnation, emphasizing that income is a critical determinant of sports spending [18][20]. Group 2: Consumption Structure - China's sports consumption is heavily weighted towards physical goods, with over 60% of sports spending on tangible products in 2020, significantly higher than the EU's 35% and close to the U.S. in 2005 [6][23]. - Service consumption in sports, particularly for viewing and fitness, is low at only 11%, compared to about 20% in the U.S. in 2005, indicating a need for a shift towards service-oriented spending [7][23]. - Even in high-income regions like Beijing and Xiamen, physical goods dominate sports spending, suggesting untapped potential for service consumption [25]. Group 3: Event Economy - Currently, the economic impact of sports events in China is limited, contributing approximately 0.1% to GDP, which is lower than the 0.4%-0.5% seen in Europe and the U.S. [8][29]. - The supply side of sports events in China lacks the scale and quality seen in the U.S., where top leagues generate billions in revenue, while Chinese leagues like CBA and CSL are significantly smaller [34][36]. - Employment absorption in the sports industry is low, with only 0.15% of the workforce engaged in sports-related jobs, compared to about 0.5% in the U.S. and U.K., indicating room for growth in this sector [9][38].