红杉美国：未来一年，这五个 AI 赛道我们重点关注

Core Viewpoint - Sequoia Capital believes that the AI revolution will be a transformative change comparable to the Industrial Revolution, presenting a $10 trillion opportunity in the service industry, with only $20 billion currently automated by AI [2][11]. Investment Themes - Sequoia will focus on five key investment themes over the next 12-18 months: persistent memory, communication protocols, AI voice, AI security, and open-source AI [2][30]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current AI revolution and historical milestones of the Industrial Revolution, emphasizing the importance of specialization in the development of complex systems [5][7][10]. Market Potential - The U.S. service industry market is valued at $10 trillion, with only $20 billion currently impacted by AI, indicating a massive growth opportunity [11][13]. Investment Trends - Five observed investment trends include: 1. Leverage over certainty, where AI agents can significantly increase productivity despite some uncertainty [21]. 2. Real-world validation of AI capabilities, moving beyond academic benchmarks [23]. 3. The practical application of reinforcement learning in industry [25]. 4. AI's integration into the physical world, enhancing processes and hardware [27]. 5. Computing becoming a new productivity function, with knowledge workers' computational needs expected to increase dramatically [29]. Focus Areas for Investment - Persistent memory is crucial for AI to integrate deeply into business processes, with ongoing challenges in this area [31]. - Seamless communication protocols are needed for AI agents to collaborate effectively, similar to the TCP/IP standard in the internet revolution [34]. - AI voice technology is currently maturing, with applications in consumer and enterprise sectors [36][37]. - AI security presents a significant opportunity across the development and consumer usage spectrum [39]. - Open-source AI is at a critical juncture, with the potential to compete with proprietary models, fostering a more open future [41].